BBC presenter Mark Carruthers talking with the former DUP MP for North Antrim Ian Paisley
As Washington buzzed with activity ahead of St Patrick’s Day, BBC presenter Mark Carruthers caught up with Ian Paisley, the former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MP for North Antrim, at a gala dinner in the US capital.
Paisley, a well-known figure in Northern Irish politics with longstanding ties to the Trump family, offered his insights into the potential ramifications of President Donald Trump’s emerging economic policies, particularly the threat of steep tariffs on Irish goods, and what it could mean for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
A Cautious Approach to Trump’s Tariff Threats
The conversation began with Carruthers probing Paisley on the possible impact of Trump’s economic strategy, which has hinted at imposing tariffs as high as 200% on Irish food exports to the United States. Paisley, measured in his response, urged calm amid the uncertainty. “My advice is don’t get excited yet. Keep calm, carry on,” he said, acknowledging the severity of such tariffs for the Republic of Ireland’s market. “If tariffs of 200% came in to Irish foods, that would be absolutely drastic for the Irish Republic market here in America.”
He highlighted the example of one Irish company with a billion dollars in annual trade, noting that such measures could “stifle” its operations. However, Paisley pointed to a potential silver lining for Northern Ireland, which, as part of the United Kingdom, might find itself in a unique position to capitalise on any divergence in trade policy. “Northern Ireland being part of the United Kingdom in this basis actually sees an opportunity,” he explained, though he quickly added, “Do we want to take an opportunity off the back of the Republic of Ireland? I hope it doesn’t come to that.”
Drawing on his conversations with the Trump family, Paisley suggested that the president’s tough rhetoric might be part of a broader negotiating tactic. “The bark may be worse than the bite,” he said, expressing doubt that tariffs would reach the speculated 200% mark. “It’s a negotiation. People should stay on it… You’ve got to react to Donald Trump the way he needs to be reacted to—and that’s not about being angry, but trying to talk through the reason of the numbers and the benefits to America.”
Trump’s Strategy: Chaos or Calculation?
Carruthers pressed Paisley on whether Trump’s approach—often characterised by abrupt policy shifts—reflects a coherent strategy or simply improvisation. Paisley leaned toward the former, describing it as a deliberate tactic to keep others guessing. “It’s designed to keep people on their toes, not knowing what people are thinking,” he said. When Carruthers quipped that it sometimes seems Trump himself doesn’t know what he’s thinking, Paisley countered, “Well, he’s getting what he wants.”
He pointed to Trump’s handling of the Ukraine conflict as evidence of this strategy’s success. “Now everyone is seeing him as, ‘Oh, let’s talk about peace, about a peace deal, no longer a war deal,’” Paisley noted, referencing the shift in tone following a tense exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “He’s got them to that piece of territory.”
Paisley praised the cautious diplomacy of Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin and the UK Prime Minister in their dealings with Trump, suggesting that respectful engagement—bolstered by symbolic gestures like “playing the King card”—could secure the best outcomes for both Northern Ireland and the wider UK.
The Bushmills Dilemma: Risk and Reward
Turning to his former constituency of North Antrim, Carruthers raised the stakes for local businesses, notably Bushmills Whiskey, which exports a million cases annually to North America. “If this doesn’t go well… 200% tariffs on Bushmills Whiskey for America—it’s a catastrophe, isn’t it?” he asked.
Paisley acknowledged the potential disaster, calling it “awful” for Bushmills and other whiskey producers if tariffs were imposed. Yet he drew on historical precedent to temper fears, recalling a similar trade dispute in 2018 over Boeing that saw tariffs of 26-27% levied on whiskey. “We managed to work our way through that,” he said, expressing cautious optimism that a repeat scenario could be navigated successfully. “They’re right to be worried, but they’ve got to read the land cautiously.”
Ever the pragmatist, Paisley also saw a potential upside. “The luxury product of whiskey in Northern Ireland—I call it Irish whiskey made in the UK—has a very unique selling point to America,” he said. If tariffs disproportionately affected the Republic’s exports but spared Northern Ireland’s, he argued, it could open “a significant opportunity” for businesses like Bushmills. Paisley revealed he has been in talks with the company, advocating for its interests amid the uncertainty.
On Trump: A Relationship-Driven Perspective
In a more personal vein, Carruthers asked Paisley about his longstanding relationship with Trump and his family, and how he views the man who has sparked both admiration and unease on the global stage. With concerns ranging from Trump’s approach to Ukraine and NATO to his attitudes toward women, Carruthers wondered what others might have misunderstood about the president.
Paisley’s response was philosophical. “Life is about relationships,” he said. “You don’t get to choose the character of the people we have to work with, but we have to have, I hope, the grace and dignity to be able to work with different types of characters.” He suggested that finding common ground with Trump, as with any leader, could yield positive results—a lesson he believes Northern Ireland’s own turbulent history bears out. “You tell me a world leader that doesn’t have peculiarities,” he added with a wry smile.
From Politics to Private Life
Though no longer an MP, Paisley remains a fixture in political circles, leveraging what he calls “probably the best black book in Northern Ireland” in his new ventures in private business. “I’m finding it very, very enjoyable,” he told Carruthers, radiating contentment. When asked if he was happy, he replied, “Be content in all things, and I’m content in all things, always happy.”
As Washington’s St Patrick’s Day celebrations unfolded, Paisley’s reflections offered a blend of caution, optimism, and pragmatism—qualities that may prove essential as Northern Ireland, the UK, and the Republic of Ireland navigate the unpredictable currents of Trump’s economic and geopolitical vision.
You can watch Mark Carruthers interview with Ian Paisley on Sunday Politics Northern Ireland on BBC iPlayer.